The 24-Month Study is most useful when its traces are treated as planning scenarios—not as a three-outcome probability forecast.
Start with the spread, not one line
Each published trace describes a different planning path. The space between the traces shows how much the outlook changes under those assumptions, while the shape of each line shows when that change appears.
The Most Probable trace is a planning scenario. It is not a guarantee, and the other displayed traces should not be converted into odds simply because several lines are present.
Make threshold claims auditable
Claims about minimum power pool, dead pool, or loss of generation need a named threshold and a dated point from a specific scenario. A review should also say whether the crossing is brief, sustained, or absent from the published horizon.
The charts on this site preserve the scenario labels and publication month so readers can check the source view alongside the written interpretation.
What CRMMS adds
CRMMS supports a different kind of analysis because its 30 stored ensemble traces can describe how frequently an outcome appears across modeled paths. Lake Projections now reports those threshold frequencies for Lake Mead and Lake Powell pool elevation.
These percentages are the share of CRMMS traces below a level on a given forecast date. They are useful for comparing modeled outcomes, but they are not guarantees and should not be confused with the three named 24-Month Study scenarios.