Reservoir outlook
Projected Elevation
Month-by-month Lake Mead elevation scenarios, measured in feet.
Planning outlook & analysis
Lake Mead 24-Month Study Forecast
Lake Mead anchors Lower Basin storage and Hoover Dam operations. Compare its elevation, release, and hydropower scenarios on the same planning horizon.
24MS
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CRMMS
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Lake Mead · Hoover Dam
24-Month Study explorer
July 2026 24-Month Study
The charts use the scenarios actually included in the selected publication. A missing Maximum Probable line does not make a Most and Minimum Probable study incomplete.
Crawlable study snapshot
End-of-Horizon Scenario Values
These values come from the latest month shared by the Minimum and Most Probable July 2026 scenarios for each metric. Maximum Probable appears only when published.
| Metric | Horizon month | Minimum Probable | Most Probable | Maximum Probable |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reservoir elevation | 988.08 ft | 1,013.85 ft | — | |
| Dam releases | 10,116 cfs | 10,097 cfs | — | |
| Hydropower generation | 191,159 MWh | 200,366 MWh | — |
River operations
Projected Releases
Month-by-month Hoover Dam average release scenarios, measured in cubic feet per second.
Powerplant outlook
Projected Hydropower
Month-by-month Hoover Dam generation scenarios, measured in megawatt-hours.
Read scenarios carefully
A scenario line is not a probability
Minimum Probable shows the lower published planning path when that scenario is available.
Most Probable is the central planning trace, not a guaranteed outcome.
Maximum Probable appears only when the source publication includes it.
CRMMS frequencies show how many of the 30 ensemble traces fall below a level; they are not a guaranteed-outcome probability.
Colorado River ensemble outlook
July 2026 CRMMS summary
The Bureau of Reclamation's Colorado River Mid-term Modeling System publication follows 30 modeled traces for Lake Mead and Lake Powell. The snapshot below reports the share below key elevations at the end of the modeled horizon on June 1, 2028.
80.0% Lake Mead below 1,035 ft · 24 of 30 traces on June 1, 2028
23.3% Lake Mead below 1,000 ft · 7 of 30 traces on June 1, 2028
0.0% Lake Mead below 950 ft · 0 of 30 traces on June 1, 2028
10.0% Lake Powell below 3,490 ft · 3 of 30 traces on June 1, 2028
These percentages describe this model ensemble, not the probability of a guaranteed outcome. Values exactly on a threshold are not counted as below it.
Analysis desk
Lake Mead reviews and explainers
Monthly reviews can pair source-specific claims with the graphs above.
How to Read a 24-Month Study Without Treating Scenarios as Odds
A practical guide to reading 24-Month Study planning traces alongside CRMMS ensemble frequencies and testing important reservoir thresholds without overstating certainty.
Read the full analysisSources, dates, and limitations
Charts use the selected Bureau of Reclamation 24-Month Study publication, and the ensemble summary uses the identified CRMMS publication. Both products are planning information that can change with future studies; neither is a guaranteed outcome.